Snap Insight: Former Malaysia PM Najib’s reduced jail term is a bittersweet irony for UMNO

KUALA LUMPUR: After days of intense speculation, it is now official: Former Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak will be released from jail earlier than expected. The Pardons Board has decided to halve the sentence – from 12 years to 6 years – and reduce the fine - from RM210 million (US$44.5 million) to RM50 million, by 76 per cent.

No reasons were given in the board’s announcement on Friday (Feb 2). The language was careful: No mention of the king’s prerogative; no mention of the word “pardon”.

The only qualification was that if the fine imposed is not paid on time, one year will be added to his prison sentence. That means his earliest release date is on Aug 23, 2028. Should Najib qualify for parole for good behaviour, he could be free by August 2026 after serving two-thirds of the new jail term.

HOPES FOR NAJIB’S RETURN TO POLITICS?

Whatever the background and legal powers of the decision, the political implications are vast, as Najib’s shadow continue to loom large in Malaysia’s “grand old party”, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), and Malaysian politics.

UMNO diehards still believe that Najib’s return to politics is a prerequisite to UMNO’s revival from its lowest point in history. They believe in Najib’s main defence: That he is a victim of a system that did not sufficiently support him to act against the massive fraud of 1MDB happening behind his back.

That is why from the day Najib was sentenced to jail, his supporters have been clinging on to the hope of a royal pardon that could bring him back to action, even hopefully as prime minister again.

Now that hope is fulfilled – albeit partially.

BOSSKU’S LASTING INFLUENCE

Najib’s age matters a lot here. If he does not receive any sentence reduction, he will be 81 years old when released in 2034. If Najib walks free in 2026, he will be 73 years old – not significantly older than the past four prime ministers when they assumed office.

However, the Pardons Board made no mention of the five-year ban from politics, as laid out in the constitution, that typically succeeds a prison sentence. Even if Najib is released on 2026, he has to wait till August 2031 before contesting in any election, guaranteeing him to miss at least one election cycle.

Of course, Najib’s influence is not only limited to elections. Returning in 2026 could already guarantee his place in UMNO, using his flagship “Bossku” (my boss) branding to reinvigorate his base. 

The current UMNO president, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, could now tell his party that he has fulfilled his promise of pursuing a pardon for Najib, and this is the fruit of his labour.

While this success could help him hold on to the presidency for a few years, the pressure for Najib to take over the reins will start to build. Mr Ahmad Zahid would have to make another political manoeuvre to keep Najib friendly but at bay.

BITTERSWEET IRONY FOR UMNO

The irony for UMNO is that while this carries the promise of a strategic turnaround, it risks driving fence-sitter voters further away from the party. Its rapid electoral decline is not attributed to its opponent, Perikatan Nasional’s strength, but also its own corruption scandals and a leadership rejuvenation that never came.

Besides completing his PhD, now Najib will also spend his time in jail counting down the days to his release. He might be plotting a glorious comeback and imagine an adoring crowd waiting for him as he takes his first steps as a free man.

But in that crowd, there will not be the hopeful voters who dreamt of a corruption-free Malaysia. They will be his unwavering loyalists, who remember only his glory and none of his flaws.

James Chai is a Visiting Fellow of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and the bestselling author of Sang Kancil (Penguin Random House).